전망·동향
Modest Growth, but Outlook Clouded by Risk - NIESR
Monthly GDP growth in January signals a cautious start to 2025, contracting by 0.1 per cent following a 0.4 per cent increase in December, primarily driven by a notable slowdown in the Production sector. However, underlying weaknesses persist, with services providing modest support while manufacturing remains under pressure due to weak domestic and external demand.
Given January’s GDP outturn alongside the Purchasing Managers’ Index and recent business and confidence surveys, we project GDP to expand by 0.3 per cent in Q1 2025, with growth primarily driven by the Services sectors.
The upcoming Spring Statement presents an opportunity to reinforce economic stability rather than introduce further uncertainty. A consistent policy direction will be essential to fostering business confidence, unlocking investment, and supporting long-term growth.
Given January’s GDP outturn alongside the Purchasing Managers’ Index and recent business and confidence surveys, we project GDP to expand by 0.3 per cent in Q1 2025, with growth primarily driven by the Services sectors.
The upcoming Spring Statement presents an opportunity to reinforce economic stability rather than introduce further uncertainty. A consistent policy direction will be essential to fostering business confidence, unlocking investment, and supporting long-term growth.
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