카지노 슬롯머신 게임 가이드KDI 카지노 슬롯머신 게임 가이드교육·정보센터

1. 경기가 좋아질 것이라는 뉴스에 왜 할인율이 증가하는지에 대한 내용은 글 중 다음 부분에 나와 있습니다.

Why does good economic news tend to increase the rate at which investors discount future payments? In an efficient capital market, the expected nominal discount rate is (approximately) equal to the interest rate on a nominally default-free riskless bond. To see why, suppose that borrowers were selling claims to a sure payment one period hence. If the yield on this claim were higher than the rate at which savers discounted the future, there would be an excess demand for this security, and this would bid up its price and reduce its yield. Hence market forces tend to equalize nominal discount rates and risk-free interest rates. Treasury bills are nominally riskless, and their yields tend to rise in response to strong economic news. This means that expected nominal discount rates also tend to rise in response to this news.

The discount effect is illustrated in its purest form by the reaction of prices on long-term Treasury bonds to news about strong economic growth. These securities have fixed coupon streams and fixed payments at maturity, and their prices are determined by discounting these payments back to the present. Positive news about the economy has no effect on the stream of payments, because they are predetermined, but it does affect the rate at which those payments are discounted.In particular, since the Federal Reserve tries to lean against the wind, it is more likely to raise the short-term interest rate and less likely to lower it when the economy is strong. Thus, when investors learn that the economy is stronger than anticipated, they revise upward their short-term interest rate forecasts, and long-term bond prices fall because the predetermined flow of payments is discounted at higher rates.

글에 따르면, 경기가 좋을 때 연방준비은행(Federal Reserve)은 보통 이자율을 높이려 합니다. 따라서 경기가 좋을 것이라는 소식에 사람들은 예상 이자율을 높이고, 이에 할인율도 상승한다고 설명하고 있습니다.

2. 링크의 글은 경기가 좋을 것이라는 뉴스에도 왜 주식가격이 떨어지는지를 설명하고 있습니다. 글의 도입부에서는 미국이 일자리의 증가로 앞으로 경기가 좋을 것이라 예상하는 데도 주식가격 지수인 다우존스 산업평균지수(Dow Jones Industrial Average)는 오히려 하락했다고 언급하고 있습니다. 그런데 질문에서 실업률이 높을 것이라는 전망은 앞으로 경기가 좋지 않을 것이라는 예상으로 해석됩니다. 따라서 질문을 반대로 하신 것은 아닌지 확인 바랍니다.

아래의 글은 결론으로, 경기가 좋아질 것이라는 뉴스가 나온다면 주식가격은 상승해야 하지만, 하락하는 경우도 있다고 했습니다. 경기호조가 일시적 현상으로 여겨진다면 배당은 크게 증가하지 않는 반면, 할인율의 변동(상승)으로 주식가격이 하락할 수 있다고 설명하고 있습니다.

According to conventional wisdom, stock prices should rise in response to news of strong economic growth, yet we observe that stock prices sometimes fall. The conventional wisdom is likely to be correct when the news concerns a permanent change in activity but not when it concerns a transitory change. Firms smooth dividend payments over the business cycle, and investors price these smooth dividend streams using variable discount factors. This results in a fall in stock prices when the market learns of a transitory increase in economic activity.

kcharmer@kdi.re.kr